- Growth slowed to +5.6% YoY (2Q 2014: +6.4% YoY), +2.9% QoQ (2Q 2014: +3.6%) and +0.9% seasonally-adjusted QoQ (2Q 2014: 1.9%).
- Both domestic demand and net external demand eased to +4.8% YoY (2Q 2014: +5.8% YoY) and +11.4% YoY (2Q 2014: +91.0% YoY).
- Adjusted our 2014 and 2015 real GDP growth forecasts to +5.9% (+6.0% previously; 2014 YTD: +6.1%) and +5.2% (+5.0% previously).
Balance of Payments 3Q 2014
Smaller current account surplus |
- Current account surplus in 3Q 2014 was smaller as trade surplus narrowed while services and income account deficits widened.
- Financial account deficit remain amid portfolio investment net outflows, but narrowed thanks to the net inflows of direct and other investments.
- Revised our full-year 2014-2015 current account balance forecasts to smaller surpluses.
Dialog Group: Maintain Buy
Clinches Johor regas project Shariah-compliant |
- New Johor regas (25% stake) to add MYR45m in profits from FY18, 4sen to TP.
- Though not unexpected, we are positive and do not discount more RAPID gas-related projects.
- Reiterate BUY; our SOP-based MYR1.90 TP has yet to incorporate this new project pending further clarity.
Petronas Gas: Maintain Hold
Pengerang announced Shariah-compliant |
- PTG’s 65% stake in the MYR2.7b Pengerang regasification plant is positive.
- Pengerang could contribute an incremental c.MYR300m of EBIT in 2018 through reservation charges alone.
- Maintain HOLD, TP unchanged at MYR23.50 for now pending further clarity from management.
Guinness Anchor: Maintain Hold
1QFY15: In line |
- 1QFY15 results are in line with expectations at 27% of our and consensus full year forecasts.
- We expect 2Q and 3Q earnings to come in steady, backed by festivities and pre-stocking activities, prior to GST.
- Maintain HOLD with unchanged DCF-based TP of MYR13.20. Dividend yield of ~5% provides support.
TECHNICAL: Dow inches up, but FBMKLCI falls
The FBM KLCI fell 10.40 points WoW to close at 1,813.79, as persistent foreign activities caused the drop. A poor Malaysia 3Q14 GDP growth of 5.6% led the index down. Volume fell from 2.66b to 1.65b shares.
Trading idea is a Take profit call on ALAM with downside target areas at MYR0.765 & MYR0.65.
NEWS
Construction: SCORE attracts over MYR7b FDI in first seven months. The Sarawak Corridor Renewable Energy (SCORE) has secured approved foreign direct investment (FDI) of more than MYR7b in the first seven months of this year. Malaysian Investment Development Authority (Mida) deputy chief executive officer II Datuk N. Rajendran said "there is (additional) potential investment of MYR6.7b in Sarawak that can be approved this year". (Source: The Star)
Globetronics Technology: Globetronics set to release 3D sensors. Globetronics Technology plans to release three-dimensional sensors in mid-2015 to tap into the market that is projected to be worth about MYR11.4b in 2020. The sensors will be used for 3D motion control in smart devices and electronic systems said group chief executive officer Heng Huck Lee. (Source: The Star)
U.S: Consumer sentiment increases more than forecast in November, reaching a seven-year high and indicating Americans will be in the mood to step up holiday spending. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index increased to 89.4, exceeding the highest estimate in a Bloomberg survey and the strongest since July 2007, from a final reading of 86.9 in October. (Source: Bloomberg)
China: Bad loans jump most since ’05 in threat to economic growth. Nonperforming loans rose CNY 72.5b (USD 11.8b) from the previous quarter to CNY 766.9b, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in a statement on Nov. 15. Soured credit accounted for 1.16% of lending, up from 1.08% three months earlier. (Source: Bloomberg)
China: Slowdown deepens as targeted stimulus fails to spur loans. Aggregate financing in October was CNY 662.7b (USD 108b), the People's Bank of China's said down from CNY 1.05tr in September. Earlier this week, reports showed deceleration in industrial output and fixed-asset investment. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Economy unexpectedly contracts as Abe weighs tax delay. Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 1.6% in the three months through September, the Cabinet Office said. Unadjusted for price changes, the economy contracted an annualized 3%. Abe's administration is seeking to shore up public support after April's levy increase triggered the deepest contraction in more than five years. Etsuro Honda, an adviser to the prime minister, said last week a tax increase is out of the question if growth is less than 3.8%. (Source: Bloomberg)
Indonesia: Fuel-price rise to be less than IDR 3,000 a liter. Indonesia will raise fuel prices by less than IDR 3,000 (USD 0.25) a liter in the coming weeks, a move that will save the government more than USD 8b in the 2015 budget, its finance minister said. The government is "watching closely" what happens with international oil prices, "because most of our fuel is imported," he said. (Source: Bloomberg) |
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